Supply-Side Forum

THE GOLD VOLATILITY MODEL: Latest Updates

Ed Breen, December 20, 2009 (© 2009)

The GVM is showing a sharp down trend in the Core YoY PCE; even though the spot price of gold has recently risen. If the actual PCE continues to follow the trend predicted by the GVM then there must be significant downward adjustments during the next six months in the prices that comprise the index. This prediction is not consistent with present consensus market expectations, such that if the actual index numbers continue to follow the predicted trend there is likely to be increased volatility in equities, bonds and commodities.

EDWARD BREEN was a long-time friend and confidant of Jude Wanniski. He served as a director of Mr. Wanniski's consulting enterprise, Polyconomics, Inc. Mr. Breen is an attorney licensed to practice law in the state of New Jersey and he currently serves as an active director of a private manufacturing business. In his career, he has served as the President of a real estate development company, as the founder and director of a publicly listed regional bank and he has been involved in a number of entrepreneurial investment ventures. Mr. Breen can be reached by e-mail here.